Today’s big release US employment data shows what many pundits are too excitable to appreciate – a flat-lining in the big picture as:
- Productivity is squeezed until the pips squeak
- Modest hiring resumes but…
- …the discouraged are encouraged to look for work, and so come back into the statistics.
The eventual next step is for unemployment to decidedly turn down – but the US economy will likely be 12 months out of recession by then.
Remember, unemployment is a lagging indicator.
Here’s Reuters on the February data:
U.S. employers cut a smaller than expected 36,000 jobs in February, leaving the unemployment rate unchanged at 9.7 percent, according to a government report on Friday which said it was unclear how severe weather had impacted payrolls.
The Labor Department said job losses for December and January had been revised to show 35,000 fewer jobs lost than previously reported.
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected non-farm payrolls to drop 50,000 last month and the unemployment rate to edge up to 9.8 percent. The median forecast from the 20 most accurate forecasters also saw payrolls falling by 50,000, while the 10 most accurate economists predicted a 70,000 decline.
(Source: Reuters)
